Keynesian and post-Keynesian models on banks in Africa
Abstract
In the present paper, we aim at filling the lacuna created by the lack of a multiplicity of empirical works on Keynesian and Post-Keynesian models on banks in Africa. Based on the case of banks and economic growth in 20 Sub-Sahara African countries for the 1990-2021periods, we employ the Granger causality tests in heterogeneous panels developed by Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012), the Fixed Effect Ordinary Least Squares method, the Mean Group Method and the Generalized Method of Moments to conclude that, in the short and long run, economic growth precedes banks development as justified by Keynesian and Post-Keynesian bank models.
Downloads
References
Afolabi, J. (2022). Financial Development, Trade Openness, and Economic Growth in Nigeria, Iranian Economic Review, 26 (1), 237-254. DOI: 10.22059/ier.2022.86982
Agu, C.C. & Chukwu, J.O. (2008). Toda and Yamamoto causality tests between Bank-based financial deepening and economic growth in Nigeria, European Journal of Social Science, 7(2), 189-198.
Aka, B. E. & Konan, Y. S. (2023). Frequency domain causality analysis of financial development and economic growth in Côte d’Ivoire, Theoretical and Applied Economics, 2(635), 163-182.
Arestis, P. (1996). Post-Keynesian Economics: Towards Coherence, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 20(1), 111-135. DOI: 10.1093/cje.a013604
Arestis, P. & Demetriades, P. (1997). Financial Development and Economic Growth: Assessing the Evidence, Economic Journal, 107(442), 783-799. DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0297.1997.tb00043.x Arestis, P. & Sawyer, M. (2016). Financial Liberalisation: Past, Present and Future, London: Palgrave MacMillan. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-41219-1
Bai, J. & Ng, S. (2002). Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models, Econometrica, 70(1), 191-221. DOI: 10.1111/1468-0262.00273
Beck, T., & Levine, R. (2004). Stock markets, banks, and growth: panel evidence”. Journal of Banking and Finance, 28 (2), 423-442. DOI:10.1016/S0378-4266(02)00408-9
Belinga, T., Zhou, J., Doumbe, E. D., Zimy, G. & Gahe, S. Y. (2016). Causality Relationship between Bank Credit and Economic Growth: Evidence from a Time Series Analysis on a Vector Error Correction. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 25(2), 103-133. DOI: 10.1016/j.sbspro.2016.11.061
Blackburne, E.F. & Frank, M.W. (2007). Estimation of Nonstationarity Heterogeneous Panels, The Stata Journal, 7(1), 197-208.
Blundell, R.W. & Bond, S.R. (1998). Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models, Journal of Econometrics, 87(1), 115-143. DOI: 10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00009-8
Bruel, G.(1918). L’ Afrique Equatorial Française, Paris: Emile Larose.
Burkett, P. & Dutt, A. K. (1991). Interest Rate Policy, Effective Demand and Growth in LDCs, International Review of Applied Economics, 5(2), 127-153. DOI:10.1080/758533094.
Calderon, C. & Liu, L. (2003). The Direction of Causality between Financial Development and Economic Growth, Journal of Development Economics, 72(1), 321-334. DOI: 10.1016/S0304-3878(03)00079-8.
Caprio, G. & Klingebiel D. (1996). Dealing with Bank Insolvencies: Cross Country Experience, Policy Research Working Paper No. 1620 (Washington: World Bank), July, 1996.
Chick, V. (1983). Macroeconomics after Keynes, Cambridge: MIT Press.
________. (1986). The Evolution of the Banking System and the Theory of Saving, Investment and Interest, Economies et Sociétés. Monnaie et Production, 3(1), 95-110. DOI: 10.1007/978-1-349-21935-3_12
Choi, I. (2001). Unit Root Tests for Panel Data, Journal of International Money and Finance, 20(2), 249-272. DOI: 10.1016/S0261-5606(00)00048-6
Costantini, V. & Martini, C. (2010). The causality between energy consumption and economic growth: a multi-sectoral analysis using non-stationary cointegrated panel data, Energy Economics, 32(3), 591-603. DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2009.09.013
Campbell, J.Y. & Shiller, R.J . (1987). Cointegration and tests of present value models, The Journal of Political Economy, 95(5), 1062-1088. DOI: 10.1086/261502
Demirgüç-Kunt, A., Detragiache, E. (1998). The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries, IMF Working Paper No. 98/83.
Demirguc-Kunt, A. 2006. Finance and economic development : policy choices for developing countries, Policy Research Working Paper Series 3955, The World Bank, , June 2006.
Docherty, P. (2020). Prudential bank regulation: a post-Keynesian perspective, European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, 17 (3), 399–412. DOI: 10.4337/ejeep.2020.0060.
Dumitrescu, E.-I. & Hurlin, C. (2012). Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels, Economic Modelling, 29 (4), 1450–1460. DOI:10.1016/j.econmod.2012.02.014.
Engle, R.F. & Granger, C.W.J. (1987),. Cointegration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing, Econometrica, 55(1), 251-276. DOI: 10.2307/1913236.
Enongene, B.E. (2023). Financial Development and Economic Growth in Cameroon: An ARDL Bound Test and Multivariate Granger Causality Framework, Journal of Quantitative Finance and Economics, 5(1), 25-48. DOI: 10.47509/JQFE.2023.v05i01.02.
Fowowe, B. (2013). Financial liberalization in sub-Saharan Africa: What do we know? Journal of Economic Surveys, 27(1), 1-37. DOI:10.1111/j.1467-6419.2011.00689.x.
Gov, A. & Yilanci, V. (2023). Graphical Causality Test Approach to the Relationship between Economic Growth, Energy Consumption, Foreign Trade Balance and Financial Development, Istanbul Journal of Economics, 73(1), 203-230. DOI:10.26650/ISTJECON2022-1164588.
Goldsmith, R. (1969). Financial Structure and Development (1st ed). New Haven: Yale University Press. DOI: 10.2307/2230134.
Hadri, K. (2000). Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panel Data, Econometrics Journal, 3(2), 148-161. DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2023.03.002.
Harris, D., Leybourne, S. & McCabe, B. (2005). Panel stationarity tests for purchasing power parity With cross-sectional dependence, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 23(4), 395 - 409. DOI: 10.1198/073500105000000090.
Ikhide, S. (2015). The finance and growth debate in Africa: What role for financial inclusion? Inaugural lecture delivered at the University of Stellenbosch, 26 November 2015.
International Monetary Fund (2016). The Financial Stability Implications of Lasting Low Oil Prices for Algeria, Algeria: Selected Issues, International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Jbili, A., Enders, K. &Treichel, V. (1997). Financial Sector Reforms in Morocco and Tunisia, Finance and Development, 29-31. DOI: 10.1177/0972652714534025.
Jung, W.S. (1986). Financial development and economic growth: International evidence, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 34(2), 333-346. DOI:10.1086/451531.
Kalecki, M. (1939). Essays in the Theory of Economic Fluctuation, London: Allen and Unwin.
________. (1990). Collected Works of Michal Kalecki, vol. 1, in Capitalism, Business Cycles and Full Employment, Oxford: Clarendon Press.
Kar, M. & Pentecost, E.J. (2000). Financial Development and Economic Growth in Turkey: Further Evidence on the Causality Issue, 8(2), Economic Research Paper. DOI: 10.4236/me.2017.82020.
Keynes, J. M. (1930 [1971]). A Treatise on Money: The Pure Theory of Money. In: Moggridge, D. (ed.). John Maynard Keynes London, Macmillan.
________. (1936). The General Theory of Employment Interest and Money, London: Macmillan.
________. (1937). The General Theory of Employment, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 51(2), 209-23. DOI: 10.2307/1882087.
Le Gall, F., Daumont, R. & Leroux, F. (2004). Banking in Sub-Saharan Africa: What Went Wrong?, IMF Working Papers N° 2004/055.
Levine, R. (2005)0. Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence. In Handbook of Economic Growth, ed. P. Aghion and S. N. Durlauf, 865 934. Amsterdam: Elsevier. DOI: 10.1016/S1574-0684(05)01012-9.
Lucas, R. (1988). On the mechanics of economic development, Journal Monetary Economics, 22(1),3-42. DOI: 10.1016/0304-3932(88)90168-7.
Lintner, J. (1956). Distribution of Incomes of Corporations among Dividends, Retained Earnings, and Taxes, The American Economic Review, 46(2), 97-113.
Magaji, S., Darma, N. A. & Igwe, G. U. (2021). Testing the Supply-Leading and Demand-Following Hypothesis for Financial Development and Economic Growth – a Case of the Nigerian Banking System, Global Scientific Journals, 9(12), 1-11.
Mátyás, L. & Sevestre, P. (2008). The Econometrics of Panel Data: Fundamentals and Recent Developments in Theory and Practice, Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
McKinnon, R. (1973). Money and Capital in Economic Development, Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution.
Meshesha, D. & Makoni, L. (2023). Causality between Financial Inclusion, Financial Stability and
Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Sustainability 15(2), 1-13. DOI: 10.3390/jrfm16060299.
Minsky, H.P. (1978). The Financial Instability Hypothesis: A Restatement. Thames Papers in Political Economy, London: Thames Polytechnic.
________. (1986). Stabilizing an Unstable Economy, New York: McGraw Hill. Misati, R. N. & Nyamongo, E. M. (2012). Financial liberalization, financial fragility and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa, Journal of Financial Stability, 7 (1), 26–37. DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2011.02.001.
Moore, B. J. (1988). Horizontalists and Verticalists: the macroeconomics of credit money. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. DOI: 10.4337/roke.2013.04.02.
Mustafa, T. & Van, Y. Y. (2022). The Relationship Between Financial Development, Inflation and Economic Growth: The Case of MINT Countries, Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Studies, 5(2), 346-354. DOI: 10.47191/jefms/v5-i2-13.
Nalunga, J. (2023). Financial liberalisation, capital controls and development in Africa: The case of Uganda, discussion note, SEATINI. Kampala, Uganda. Neal, T. (2014). Panel cointegration analysis with xtpedroni, The Stata Journal, 14(3), 684-692.
Ndlovu, G. (2013). Financial sector development and economic growth: evidence from Zimbabwe. International Journal of Economic Finance Issues. 3(2), 435-446.
Odhiambo, N. M. (2008). Financial depth, savings, and economic growth in Kenya: A dynamic causal linkage. Economic Modeling; 25 (4), 704-713. DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2007.10.009.
Olayiwola, A. S. (2022). Dynamic Relationship between Financial Sector Development and Inclusive Growth in Sub-Sahara African Countries, African Journal of Economic Review, 10(2), 110-119. DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.320584.
Olufemi, A., Oladapo F. & Oseko, M. (2015). Does Supply-Leading Hypothesis hold in a Developing Economy? A Nigerian Focus, Procedia Economics and Finance, 30(1), 30-37. DOI: 10.1016/S2212-5671(15)01252-6.
Pedroni, P. (1999). Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. 61(1), 653-670. DOI: 10.1111/1468-0084.61.s1.14.
________. (2004). Panel cointegration: asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests with an application to the PPP hypothesis, Econometric Theory, 20 (3), 597-625. DOI: 10.1017/S0266466604203073.
Pesaran, M.H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometric, 22(1), 265-312. DOI: 10.1002/jae.951.
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. & Im, K. S. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels, Journal of Econometrics, 115(1), 53-74. DOI: 10.1016/S0304-4076(03)00092-7.
Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R. (1995). Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 79-113. DOI: 10.1016/0304-4076(94)01644-F.
Pesaran, M.H., Smith, L.V. & Yamagata, T. (2013). Panel unit root tests in the presence of a multifactor error structure. Journal of Econometrics, 175(2), 94-115. DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2013.02.001.
Phillips, P.C.B. & Moon, H.R. (2000). Nonstationary panel data analysis: an overview of some recent developments, Econometric Reviews, 19(3), 263-286. DOI: 10.1080/07474930008800473.
Pinshi, C. (2020). On the causal nature between financial development and economic growth in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: Is it supply leading or demand following?, Working Papers hal-02898899, HAL.
Polemis, M.L. & Fotis, P.N. (2013). Do gasoline prices respond asymmetrically in the euro zone area? Evidence from cointegrated panel data analysis. Energy Policy, 56(1), 425-433. DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.01.001.
Robinson, J. (1952). The Generalization of the General Theory and Other Essays. London:The McMillan Press Ltd,.
Safa, N. and Ali, B. (2023). Causality between Economic Growth and Bank Deposit: Evidence from Algeria, Journal of Economic Additions, 7(1), 673-687.
Schumpeter, J. (1911). A Theory of Economic Development. Harvard University Press.
Shaw, E. 1973. Financial Deepening in Economic Development. New York: Oxford University .
Singh, A. (1997). Financial liberalization, stock markets and economic development. The Economic Journal, 107(442), 771-782. DOI: /10.1111/j.1468-0297.1997.tb00042.x
Smith, R., Shin, Y. & Pesaran, M. (1999). Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94(446), 621-634. DOI: 10.2307/2670182.
Songul, K., Ilhan, O., & Ali, A. (2009). Financial Development and Economic Growth: Literature Survey and Empirical Evidence From Sub-saharan African Countries, South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences, 12(1), 11-27.
Stern, N. (1989). The economics of development: a survey, The Economic Journal, 99(397), 597-685. DOI: 10.2307/2233764.
Stiglitz, J. E. (1994). The Role of the State in Financial Markets, in M. Bruno and B. Pleskovic (Eds.), Proceedings of the World Bank Annual Conference on Development Economics, Washington, DC: World Bank.
Stiglitz, J. & Weiss, A. (1981). Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information, The American Economic Review, 71(3), 393-410.
Sung, H.M. & Urrutia, J.L. (1995). Long-term and short-term causal relations between dividends and stock prices: A test of Lintner`s dividend model and present value model, Journal of Financial Research, 18(2), 171-188.
Tche, J. (1997). The Significance of Microfinance in the Financial Liberalisation Debate: The Case of Cameroon, PhD Thesis, London: London Guildhall University.
Tekilu, T. & Jemal, A. (2019). The causality between Financial Development and Economic Growth in Ethiopia: Supply Leading vs Demand Following Hypothesis, Journal of Economics and Financial Analysis, 3(1), 87-115. DOI: 10.1991/jefa.v3i1.a25.
Touna Mama (2024). Ma Pensée Economique, in J. Tche (Eds.), Économie Post-Keynésienne et Banques, London : EUE, Forthcoming.
Werkmann, V. (2013). Performance of unit root tests in unbalanced panels: experimental evidence, AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, 97(3), 271-285. DOI: 10.1007/s10182-012-0203-8.
Windmeijer, F. (2005), A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators, Journal of Econometrics, 126 (1), 25-51. DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2004.02.005
Copyright (c) 2024 Jacob Tche
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
- Authors keep copyrights and concede to the Journal the right to the first publication, with the paper simultaneously licenced under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License which allows recognised author and journal work sharing.
- Authors are authorized to assume additional contracts separately, for non-exclusive versions of the paper published in this journal (e.g.: publish in an instituional repository or as a book chapter) with the recogntion of authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are allowed (and are estimulated) to publish and distribute their work online (e.g.: in institutional repositories or at their personal websites) at any point before or during the editorial process, once this may generate productive alterations on the paper, as well as increse the factor of impact and quotation of the published paper (please, see Free Access Effect)