Brazilian Keynesian Review

Editorial

Brazilian Keynesian Review — Thu, 04 Dec 2025 19:51:04 -0300

Participatory Governance in Industrial Policy:

Adilson Giovanini, Henrique Morrone — Thu, 24 Jul 2025 00:00:00 -0300

International experience underscores the importance of participatory arenas in building resilient industrial policies (IPs). In Brazil, however, IPs suffer from institutional fragmentation, centralized decision-making, and limited engagement with civil society. This article investigates how the institutional architecture developed through the health reform and the Unified Health System (SUS) can offer valuable lessons for enhancing the participatory governance of industrial policy, with particular focus on the National Council of Industry (CNI) and the National Council for Industrial Development (CNDI). Drawing on a historical analysis, the study mobilizes three analytical dimensions (articulation capacity, representative cohesion, and conflict mediation) to examine the constraints on institutional stability. The findings suggest that weaknesses in these dimensions undermine the resilience and legitimacy of Brazilian industrial policy. The study highlights the need to redesign participatory arenas, decentralize decision-making, and institutionalize enduring mechanisms for consensus-building and monitoring, in order to ensure the continuity and effectiveness of Brazil’s neo-industrialization strategies.

An analysis of the endogeneity of money from post-Keynesian theory and the chartalist theory of money

Felipe Santos Tostes — Thu, 24 Jul 2025 00:00:00 -0300

This paper analyzed the endogeny of the money supply. The discussion about the origin of the money supply was introduced as a starting point. A first conclusion is that Keynes and post-Keynesians agree with chartalist theory of money, but disagree the hypothesis of full endogeny of the money. For them, the money will be endogeny only with development of banks. This paper has the main hypothesis the full endogeny of the money supply. In this case, not to be need development of banks for currency to be created, because the primary relationship through debit already put the money essentially as endogenous.

Is Full Employment Inflationary?

Simone Deos, Pietro Borsari — Thu, 24 Jul 2025 00:00:00 -0300

In recent decades, the economic policy of Western economies, including Brazil, has shifted from the search for full employment to the priority of price stability, often at the expense of unemployment. The Inflation Targeting Regime has operated as a mechanism that maintains high rates of unemployment and underemployment of the workforce. However, we argue that unemployment is not a necessary condition for price stability. A Job Guarantee Program (JG) can be implemented without generating inflationary pressures, functioning as an automatic fiscal stabilizer. This program would guarantee employment for those expelled from the job market, with remuneration lower than that practiced in the private sector, minimizing impacts on aggregate demand. Faced with the climate emergency and growing geopolitical instability, which could worsen inflation, the creation of alternative models of social protection and inflation control becomes even more urgent. Although it does not solve all the challenges in the world of work, the JG can guarantee full employment and price stability.

An Analysis of the Balance Sheet of the Central Bank of Brazil

Sylvio Kappes — Thu, 04 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0300

Starting in 2006, the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) began an intense process of accumulating international reserves. This process explains the main items on its balance sheet: on the assets side, the government bond portfolio and the international reserves themselves; on the liabilities side, the repo operations and the National Treasury Single Account (CUTN). The objective of this article is to explain the evolution of these items, as well as explore their connections. The article identifies some economic policy problems, such as the cost of carrying international reserves, the short term and high cost of repo operations, and their presence in the calculation of public debt. This last fact causes an unusual dynamic, through which, whenever the National Treasury pays part of the debt, there is an increase in liquidity that is wiped out by repo operations, which are part of the debt, so that the latter does not change.

Central Bank and Green Sustainable Transition

Lorena Bastos de Holanda — Thu, 04 Dec 2025 20:22:22 -0300

The article discusses the vulnerability of the financial system in the face of the climate crisis and examines the ability of central banks to act as proactive agents in the green-sustainable transition. It argues that climate-related financial risks (CRFR) are systemic, endogenous, and marked by radical uncertainty, which makes them incompatible with conventional supervision models. Based on a review of the literature, the text examines the channels of transmission of the climate crisis to the financial system, highlighting the paradoxes between physical and transition risks. It then analyses two alternative regulatory approaches: the market fixing approach, focused on transparency and risk pricing, and the market shaping approach, based on the precautionary principle and macroprudential and allocative policies. The article highlights the implications of each perspective and points out the dilemmas faced by monetary authorities in light of the urgency of the sustainable green transition

Study of the double impact of Petrobras' performance between 2016 and 2022

Raquel Azevedo, Leonardo Segura Moraes, Francinne Santos Willon — Thu, 24 Jul 2025 00:00:00 -0300

Considering both Maria da Conceição Tavares’ formulation that Brazilian crises are due to the decline in the diffusion capacity of dynamic sectors, and the historical role of Petrobras in the process of import substitution industrialization through its purchasing policy aimed at the domestic market, the objective of this paper is to analyze the consequences of the 2014-2015 crisis based on the effects of the new policy established for Petrobras in 2016 by Michel Temer's government and consolidated in the subsequent government of Jair Bolsonaro. From 2016 onwards, the company’s guideline began to be guided by the reduction of internal purchasing requirements and the sale of assets in the refining segment. The double impact of these policies are, on the one hand, the recovery of the general rate of profit of the Brazilian economy and, on the other, the maintenance of a high disproportion between production departments. The methodology adopted in this work is the translation of companies’ accounting data into Marx’s economic theory through the Marxist Study of Added Values database.

Exploring the Minsky Climate Moment:

Caetano Montenegro Mascarenhas — Thu, 24 Jul 2025 00:00:00 -0300

The term Climate Minsky Moment was first introduced by Carney (2015) as an extension of the traditional Minsky Moment, representing an emerging paradigm in discussions on financial risks associated with climate change. Despite its growing relevance, the concept and the key factors shaping this phenomenon remain underexplored. This article addresses this gap through a conceptual and theoretical analysis of the Climate Minsky Moment. The theoretical foundations of the concept are examined, with emphasis on its implications for financial and environmental stability, as well as its significance in the current context of the climate crisis. In addition, the main drivers of the Climate Minsky Moment are analyzed, including the exposure of climate-related assets and the responses of investors and regulators. This discussion provides a basis for more in-depth analysis and for assessing the applicability of the concept to the dynamics of climate change.

Monetary Policy Conventions and the Brazilian Financialization Process

Ana Clara Fernandes Nogueira — Thu, 24 Jul 2025 00:00:00 -0300

The concept of conventions, introduced by John Maynard Keynes, is of paramount importance for understanding economics. This article explores the conventions governing monetary policy, given the conventional behavior of the interest rate, and its connection to the process of financialization in Brazil. The literature in the field demonstrates that the prevailing convention is pro-conservative, which results in a high and inflexible basic interest rate, a determining factor for the increase in Brazilian financialization since 1995.