Capital controls: the recent reorientation of mainstream economics and the structuralist- Keynesian approach

  • Diego Garcia Angelico Instituto de Economia da Universidade Estadual de Campinas
  • Giuliano Contento de Oliveira Português
Keywords: International Financial-Monetary System, Capital controls, mainstream economics, structuralist-Keynesian approach

Abstract

The article discusses capital controls in the mainstream economics view and the Keynesian-structuralist approach, arguing that although mainstream economics' recent reorientation on capital controls is notable, this new approach remains incomplete because it does not recognize the asymmetries inherent to the contemporary International Financial-Monetary System and its effects on economies. Therefore, the paper explains why mainstream economics advocates the use of capital controls only temporarily while the Keynesian-structuralist approach supports the use of permanent capital controls by countries, especially peripheral ones.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Aizenman, J. and Binici, M. (2016). Exchange market pressure in OECD and emerging economies: Domestic vs. external factors and capital flows in the old and new normal. Journal of International Money and Finance, 66: 65-87.

Alper, C. E., Ardic, O. P., and Fendoglu, S. (2009). The economics of the uncovered interest parity condition for emerging markets. Journal of Economic Surveys, 23(1), 115-138.

Andrade, R. P., and Prates, D. M. (2013). Exchange rate dynamics in a peripheral monetary economy. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 35(3), 399-416.

Arora, V. B., & Cerisola, M. D. (2000). How does US monetary policy influence economic conditions in emerging markets? IMF Working Paper WP/00/148. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

Bernanke, Ben S. (2005). Monetary policy in a world of mobile capital. Cato Journal, v. 25, n. 1, p. 1-12.

Binici, M., Hutchison, M. and Schindler, M. (2010). Controlling capital? Legal restrictions and the asset composition of international financial flows. Journal of International Money and Finance, 29(4): 666-684.

Blanchard, O.; Ostry, J. D., Ghosh, A. R. and Chamon, M. 2017. Are capital inflows expansionary or contractionary? Theory, policy implications, and some evidence. IMF Economic Review, 65(3): 563-585.

Bluedorn, J., Duttagupta, R., Guajardo, J., & Topalova, P. (2013). Capital flows are fickle: Anytime, anywhere. IMF Working Paper WP/13/183. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

Braga, José Carlos de Souza. (1997). Financeirização global: o padrão sistêmico de riqueza do capitalismo contemporâneo. In: Tavares, M.C.; Fiori, J.M. (Org.). Poder e dinheiro: uma política de globalização. Petrópolis - RJ: Editora Vozes, p. 195-242.

Calderón, C. and Levy-Yeyati, E. (2009). Zooming from volatility to income distribution. World Bank Working Paper, WPS4895: 1-38. Washington, DC: The World Bank.

Calvo, G. A., Izquierdo, A. and Mejia, L. F. (2004). On the empirics of sudden stops: the relevance of balance-sheet effects. National Bureau of Economic Research, No. w10520: 1-51. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.

Calvo, G. A.; Reinhart, C. M. (2002). Fear of floating. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117(2): 379-408.

Carvalho, Fernando J. Cardim de. (1992). Mr Keynes and the post-Keynesians: principles of macroeconomics for a monetary production economy. England: Edward Elgar.

Carvalho, Fernando C. de; Sicsú, João. (2004). Controvérsias recentes sobre controles de capitais. Revista de Economia Política, São Paulo, v. 24, n. 2, abr./jun.

Chinn, M. D., and Meredith, G. (2005). Testing uncovered interest parity at short and long horizons during the post-Bretton Woods era (No. w11077). National Bureau of Economic Research.

De Gregorio, J. (2014). Capital Flows and Capital Account Management. In: What have we learned?

Macroeconomic policy after the crisis, edited by Akerlof, G., Blanchard, O., Romer, D. and Stiglitz, J. Massachusetts: MIT Press.

Edwards, S. (2007). Capital Controls, Sudden Stops, and Current Account Reversals. In: Capital controls and capital flows in emerging economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences, edited by Edwards, S. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

Eichengreen, B. 1996. Globalizing capital: a history of the International Monetary System, Pinceton University Press.

Eichengreen, B., Hausmann, R. and Panizza, U. (2003). The pain of original sin. In: Other people’s money: debt denomination and financial instability in emerging-market economies, edited by Eichengreen, B. and Hausmann, R. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

Eichengreen, B., Hausmann, R. and Panizza, U. (2007). Currency mismatches, debt intolerance and original sin: Why they are not the same and why it matters. In: Edwards, S. (Ed.). Capital controls and capital flows in emerging economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences (pp. 121-164). Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.

Fernández, A., Klein, M. W., Rebucci, A., Schindler, M. and Uribe, M. (2016). Capital control measures: A new dataset. IMF Economic Review, 64(3): 548-574.

Fischer, S. (1997). Capital Account Liberalization and the Role of the IMF. IMF Seminar Asia and the IMF, Hong Kong (Vol. 19).

Flassbeck, H. (2001). The exchange rate: economic policy tool or market price? Discussion Paper Unctad, n. 157.

Forbes, K., Fratzscher, M., Kostka, T. and Straub, R. (2016). Bubble thy neighbour: Portfolio effects and externalities from capital controls. Journal of International Economics, 99: 85-104.

Frankel, J., and Poonawala, J. (2010). The forward market in emerging currencies: Less biased than in major currencies. Journal of International Money and Finance, 29(3), 585-598.

Ghosh, M. A. R., Qureshi, M. S., and Sugawara, N. (2014). Regulating capital flows at both ends: does it work? IMF Working Paper WP/14/188, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

Habermeier, K., Kokenye, A., and Baba, C. (2011). The Effectiveness of Capital Controls and Prudential Policies in Managing Large Inflows. IMF Staff Discussion Note, SDN/11/14. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

Johnston, B. and Ryan, C. (1994). The Impact of Controls on Capital Movements on the Private Capital Accounts of Countries Balance of Payments: Empirical Estimates and Policy Implications. IMF Working Paper WP/94/78. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

Johnston, B. and Tamirisa, N. (1998). Why do countries use capital controls? IMF Working Paper WP/98/181. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

Kaltenbrunner, A. (2015). A post Keynesian framework of exchange rate determination: a Minskyan approach. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 38(3), 426-448.

Kaminsky, G., Reinhart, C. and Végh, C. (2004). When it rains, it pours: Procyclical capital flows and macroeconomic policies. National Bureau of Economic Research, No. w10780: 1-58. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.

Keynes, John Maynard. [1973] (2013). The collected writings of John Maynard Keynes. Edição de D. E. Moggridge. [New edition] Cambridge: Cambridge University Press for the Royal Economic Society.

Keynes, J. M. [1936] (1985) A teoria geral do emprego, do juro e da moeda. 3. ed. São Paulo: Nova Cultural.

Kindleberger, C. (2000). The dollar and world liquidity: A minority view. Reprinted in Comparative Political Economy: A retrospective.

Klein, M. (2012). Capital Controls: Gates versus Walls. National Bureau of Economic Research, No. w18526: 1-43. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.

Korinek, A. (2011). The new economics of prudential capital controls: A research agenda. IMF Economic Review, 59(3): 523-561.

Korinek, A. (2012). Capital controls and currency wars. Unpublished Manuscript, 1-60, Department of Economics, University of Maryland, 1-60, Maryland, United States.

Kose, M. A., Prasad, E., Rogoff, K. and Wei, S. J. (2009). Financial globalization: a reappraisal. IMF Staff papers, 56(1): 8-62.

Lane, P. R. and Milesi-Ferretti, G. M. (2007). The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970–2004. Journal of International Economics, 73(2): 223-250.

Lavoie, M. (2014). Post-keynesian economics: new foundations. Cheltenham; Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar.

Magud, N. E., Reinhart, C. M. and Rogoff, K. S. (2011). Capital Controls: Myth and Reality - A Portfolio Balance Approach. National Bureau of Economic Research, No. w16805: 1-49. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.

Mehl, A., and Cappiello, L. (2009). Uncovered interest parity at long horizons: Evidence on emerging economies. Review of International Economics, 17(5), 1019-1037.

Missio, F. Câmbio e crescimento na abordagem keynesiana-estruturalista. 2012. 278 f. Tese (Doutorado em Economia) - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais - FACE, Belo Horizonte, 2012.

Meyrelles Filho, Sérgio F.; Jayme Jr., Frederico G.; Libânio, Frederico A. (2009). Mobilidade de capitais e crescimento econômico: elementos para uma síntese teórica. Economia e Sociedade, Campinas, v.18, n.3, p.439-67, dez.

Oliveira, Giuliano C. de. (2012). Instabilidade estrutural e evolução dos fluxos internacionais de capitais privados líquidos para a periferia (1990-2009). In: Cintra, Marcos A. M.; Gomes, Keiti da R. (orgs.) As transformações no sistema financeiro internacional, v.2, Brasília. p.501-545.

Oliveira, Giuliano C. de., Maia, G. e Mariano, J. (2008). O sistema de Bretton Woods e a dinâmica do sistema monetário internacional contemporâneo. Pesquisa & Debate, 19(2), 34.

Oliveira, Giuliano C. de., Wolf, P. J. W., Angelico, D. G. e Laplane, E. G. (2021). Blindagem externa, controles de capital e inserção diferenciada da Ásia e da América Latina na globalização financeira (1995-2016). Revista de Economia Contemporânea, 25(2), p.1-36.

Ostry, J., Ghosh, A., Habermeier, K., Chamon, M., Qureshi, M., Leaven, L., Kokenye, A., Reinhardt, D., Korinek, A. (2012). Multilateral aspects of managing the capital account. IMF Staff Discussion Note SDN/12/10: 1-25.

Pasricha, G. K., Falagiarda, M., Bijsterbosch, M. and Aizenman, J. (2018). Domestic and multilateral effects of capital controls in emerging markets. Journal of International Economics, 115: 48-58.

Paula, L. F. R.; Oreiro, José Luís; Silva, Guilherme J Costa da. (2003). Fluxos e Controle de Capitais no Brasil: avaliação e proposta de política. In: João Sicsú; José Luís Oreiro; Luiz Fernando de Paula. (Org.). Agenda Brasil: políticas econômicas para o crescimento com estabilidade de preços. 1ed.Barueri/Rio de Janeiro: Manole/Konrad Adenauer, p. 65-115.

Peruffo, Luiza; Silva, Pedro P. da; Cunha, André M. (2021). Capital account regulation and national autonomy: the political economy of the new welfare economics. Contexto Internacional, vol. 43(1), p.173-97, Jan/Apr.

Prasad, E., Rogoff, K., Wei, S. and Kose, A. (2003). Effects of Financial Globalization on Developing Countries: Some Empirical Evidence. IMF Occasional Paper, No. 220: 1- 66. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

Prates, Daniela M. (2002). Crises financeiras em países emergentes: uma interpretação heterodoxa. Tese de Doutorado, IE/Unicamp.

Prates, Daniela M. (2005). As assimetrias do sistema monetário e financeiro internacional. Revista de economia contemporânea, Rio de Janeiro, 9(2): 263-288.

PREBISCH, R. [1949] (1986). El desarrollo económico de América Latina y algunos de sus principales problemas. Desarrollo Económico, v. 26, n. 103, p.479-502, oct./dec.

Reinhart, C. M., Rogoff, K. S. and Savastano, M. A. (2003). Debt intolerance. National Bureau of Economic Research, No. w9908: 1-77. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.

Rey, H. (2015). Dilemma not trilemma: the global financial cycle and monetary policy independence. National Bureau of Economic Research, No. w21162: 1-42. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.

Rodrik, D.; Subramanian, A. (2009). Why did financial globalization disappoint? IMF staff papers, 56(1): 112-138.

Rodrik, D.; Velasco, A. (1999). Short-term capital flows. National Bureau of Economic Research, No. w7364: 1-44. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.

Rossi, M. (1999). Financial Fragility and Economic Performance in Developing Economies: Do Capital Controls, Prudential Regulation and Supervision Matter? IMF Working Paper WP/99/66. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

Sicsú, João; Ferrari Filho, Fernando (2006). Câmbio e controle de capitais: avaliando a eficiência de modelos macroeconômicos. Rio de Janeiro: Elsevier.

Tavares, M. (1985). A retomada da hegemonia norte-americana. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, 5(2).

Published
2024-12-09
How to Cite
Garcia Angelico, D., & Contento de Oliveira, G. (2024). Capital controls: the recent reorientation of mainstream economics and the structuralist- Keynesian approach. Brazilian Keynesian Review, 10(2), 423-445. https://doi.org/10.33834/bkr.v10i2.351
Section
Articles