Assimetrias e Intensidades Tecnológicas no Diálogo entre o Pós-keynesianismo e o Pensamento Cepalino: algumas evidências empíricas

  • Thiago Fernandes Ladeira Empresa de Pesquisa Agropecuária de Minas Gerais (EPAMIG)
  • Fábio Henrique Bittes Terra Universidade Federal do ABC (UFABC), pesquisador CNPQ
Palavras-chave: Complexidade Econômica, Crescimento desigual, Macroeconomia

Resumo

A magnitude das assimetrias tecnológicas pode ser fator determinante para o padrão de crescimento desigual entre os países. Sendo esta uma importante dimensão da reflexão econômica heterodoxa no contexto dos modelos de crescimento restrito pelo balanço de pagamentos, é oportuna uma investigação a respeito da dinâmica do gap e do nível de intensidade tecnológico observado entre países do Norte e do Sul. Este é o esforço empreendido neste ensaio para a totalidade de países da América Latina e do Caribe. Partindo de um modelo de regressão linear para dados em painel, foi possível observar que a dinâmica temporal do nível médio de intensidade tecnológica dos países avaliados tende para um equilíbrio próximo da intensidade observada em países como Portugal e Nova Zelândia. Apesar disso, os valores encontrados situam-se distantes de países no topo da classificação estabelecida pelo Índice de Complexidade Econômica (ECI), indicando a necessidade de intervenções públicas para aprimorar as capacidades produtivas de cada país ao longo do tempo.

Downloads

Não há dados estatísticos.

Biografia do Autor

Fábio Henrique Bittes Terra, Universidade Federal do ABC (UFABC), pesquisador CNPQ
       

Referências

Abramovitz, M. (1986). Catching up, forging ahead, and falling behind. The journal of economic history, 46(2), 385-406. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022050700046209

Albeaik, S., Kaltenberg, M., Alsaleh, M. & Hidalgo, C. A. (2017a). Improving the economic complexity index. arXiv preprint arXiv:1707.05826. DOI: https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1707.05826

Albeaik, S., Kaltenberg, M., Alsaleh, M. & Hidalgo, C. A. (2017b). Measuring the knowledge intensity of economies with an improved measure of economic complexity. arXiv preprint arXiv:1707.05826.

Bárcena, A. (2016). Foreword. In: A. Bárcena & A. Prado (eds.) Neostructuralism and heterodox thinking in Latin America and the Caribbean in the early twenty-first century. Santiago: ECLAC, 2016. LC/G. 2633-P. p. 13-16. Disponível em <https://repository.eclac.org/handle/11362/40121>

Bárcena, A. & Prado, A. (2016). Introduction. In: A. Bárcena & A. Prado (eds.) Neostructuralism and heterodox thinking in Latin America and the Caribbean in the early twenty-first century. Santiago: ECLAC, 2016. LC/G. 2633-P. p. 17-28. Disponível em <https://repository.eclac.org/handle/11362/40121>

Botta, A. (2009). A structuralist North–South model on structural change, economic growth and catching-up. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 20(1), 61-73. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2008.12.001

Caldentey, E. P. (2016). A time to reflect on opportunities for debate and dialogue between (neo) structuralism and heterodox schools of thought. In: A. Bárcena & A. Prado (eds.) Neostructuralism and heterodox thinking in Latin America and the Caribbean in the early twenty-first century. Santiago: ECLAC, 2016. LC/G. 2633-P. p. 31-83. Disponível em <https://repository.eclac.org/handle/11362/40121>

Castillo, M. & Martins Neto, A. (2016). Premature deindustrialization in Latin America. ECLAC – Production Development Series nº 205. Santiago: ECLAC. Disponível em <https://repositorio.cepal.org/handle/11362/40241>

Chávez, J. C., Mosqueda, M. T. & Gómez-Zaldívar, M. (2017). Economic Complexity and Regional Growth Performance: Evidence from the Mexican Economy. Review of Regional Studies, 47(2). DOI: https://doi.org/10.52324/001c.8023

Cimoli, M. (1988). Technological gaps and institutional asymmetries in a North‐South model with a continuum of goods. Metroeconomica, 39(3), 245-274. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-999X.1988.tb00878.x

Cimoli, M. & Porcile, G. (2014). Technology, structural change and BOP-constrained growth: a structuralist toolbox. Cambridge journal of economics, 38(1), 215-237. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/bet020

Cristelli, M., Gabrielli, A., Tacchella, A., Caldarelli, G. & Pietronero, L. (2013). Measuring the intangibles: A metrics for the economic complexity of countries and products. PloS one, 8(8), e70726. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0070726

Cristelli, M., Tacchella, A. & Pietronero, L. (2015). The heterogeneous dynamics of economic complexity. PloS one, 10(2), e0117174. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0117174

Dávila-Fernández, M. & Amado, A. (2015). Entre a lei de Thirlwall e a hipótese Prebisch-Singer: uma avaliação da dinâmica dos termos de troca em um modelo de crescimento com restrição no Balanço de Pagamentos. Economia e Sociedade, 24, 87-119. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/1982-3533.2015v24n1art4

De La Cruz, J. & Riker, D. (2012). Product space analysis of the exports of Brazil. US Internat. Trade Commission, Office of Economics. Disponível em <https://www.usitc.gov/publications/332/EC201206A.pdf>

Gabriel, L. F., Jayme, F. G. & Oreiro, J. L. C. (2019). Mudança Estrutural, Hiato Tecnológico e Capital Humano em um modelo norte-sul de crescimento com restrição de balanço de pagamentos. Estudos Econômicos (São Paulo), 49, 465-499. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-41614932lfj

Gala, P., Rocha, I. & Magacho, G. (2018). The structuralist revenge: economic complexity as an important dimension to evaluate growth and development. Brazilian journal of political economy, 38, 219-236. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572018v38n02a01

Gebrerufael, S. G. (2017). Dynamics of Product Complexity in Africa. Journal of Heterodox Economics, 4(1), 11-35. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/jheec-2017-0002

Gerschenkron, A. (2015). Economic backwardness in historical perspective (1962). Cambridge MA.

Gräbner, C. & Hafele, J. (2020). The emergence of core-periphery structures in the European Union: A complexity perspective (No. 6). ZOE Discussion Papers.

Harrod, R. F. (1939). An essay in dynamic theory. The economic journal, 49(193), 14-33. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2225181

Hartmann, D. & Pinheiro, F. L. (2022). Economic complexity and inequality at the national and regional level. arXiv preprint arXiv:2206.00818. DOI: https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2206.00818

Hausman, J. A. (1978). Specification tests in econometrics. Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society, 1251-1271. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/1913827

Hausmann, R., Hidalgo, C., Bustos, S., Coscia, M., Simoes, A. & Yildirim, M. A. (2011). The atlas of economic complexity: Mapping paths to prosperity. Cambridge: Center for International Development, Harvard University. Disponível em <https://oec.world/pdf/AtlasOfEconomicComplexity_Part_I.pdf>

Hausmann, R. & Rodrik, D. (2003). Economic development as self-discovery. Journal of development Economics, 72(2), 603-633. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3878(03)00124-X

Hidalgo, C. A. & Hausmann, R. (2009). The building blocks of economic complexity. Proceedings of the national academy of sciences, 106(26), 10570-10575. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0900943106

Hirschman, A. (1958): The Strategy of Economic Development. Yale University Press, New Haven.

Ivanova, I., Strand, Ø., Kushnir, D. & Leydesdorff, L. (2017). Economic and technological complexity: A model study of indicators of knowledge-based innovation systems. Technological forecasting and social change, 120, 77-89. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2017.04.007

Kaldor, N. (1957). A model of economic growth. The economic journal, 67(268), 591-624. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2227704

Lewis, W. A. (1954). Economic development with unlimited supplies of labour. The Manchester School, 22(2), 139–191.

Li, Y. & Rigby, D. (2023). Relatedness, complexity, and economic growth in Chinese cities. International Regional Science Review, 46(1), 3-37. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/01600176221082308

Lin, J. Y. (2016). The latecomer advantages and disadvantages. A new structural economics perspective. In: M. Andersson & T. Axelsson (eds.), Diverse development paths and structural transformation in the escape from poverty. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Manna, J. V. N. C. (2020). The convergences between post Keynesian and developmental approaches: the post Keynesianism applied to emerging countries. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, 40, 37-52. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572020-3030

Nurkse, R. (1959). Patterns of Trade and Development. Stockholm: Almquist and Wiksell.

Observatory of Economic Complexity. (2022). The Observatory of Economic Complexity. Recuperado em 19 de junho de 2022, de The Observatory of Economic Complexity: https://atlas.media.mit.edu/es/

Oreiro, J. L. C. (2016). Macroeconomia do desenvolvimento: uma perspectiva keynesiana. Rio de Janeiro: LTC, 1.

Oreiro, J. L. C., Manarin, L. L. & Gala, P. (2020). Deindustrialization, economic complexity and exchange rate overvaluation: the case of Brazil (1998-2017). PSL Quarterly Review, 73(295), 313-341. DOI: https://doi.org/10.13133/2037-3643_73.295_3

Oreiro, J. L. C., D’Amato, S. W., D’Agostini L. L M. & Gala P. S. O. S. (2022), “Measuring the technological backwardness of middle- and low-income countries: The employment quality gap and its relationship with the per capita income gap”, PSL Quarterly Review, 75 (301):139-159. DOI: https://doi.org/10.13133/2037-3643/17784

Rodrigues, B. (2021). A Geoeconomia Híbrida da China na América do Sul: o uso de instrumentos econômicos duais para fins geopolíticos. Carta Internacional, 16(1), e1085-e1085. DOI: https://doi.org/10.21530/ci.v16n1.2021.1085

Rosenstein-Rodan, P. N. (1943). Problems of industrialisation of eastern and south-eastern Europe. The economic journal, 53(210-211), 202-211. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2226317

Thirlwall, A.P. (2012). Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Models: History and Overview. In: E. Soukiazis & P.A. Cerqueira (eds) Models of Balance of Payments Constrained Growth. Palgrave Macmillan, London. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137023957_2

Van Dam, A., & Frenken, K. (2022). Variety, complexity and economic development. Research Policy, 51(8), 103949. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2020.103949

Westphal, L. E. (2002). Technology strategies for economic development in a fast changing global economy. Economics of innovation and new technology, 11(4-5), 275-320. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/10438590200000002

Publicado
2024-04-07
Como Citar
Fernandes Ladeira, T., & Bittes Terra, F. H. (2024). Assimetrias e Intensidades Tecnológicas no Diálogo entre o Pós-keynesianismo e o Pensamento Cepalino: algumas evidências empíricas. Brazilian Keynesian Review, 10(1), 1-22. https://doi.org/10.33834/bkr.v10i1.306
Seção
Artigos