Além da curva em U-invertido:
desindustrialização e a contribuição da indústria ao desenvolvimento nos países de alta e média renda
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33834/bkr.v12i1.413Palavras-chave:
Indústria e desenvolvimento, Mudança estrutural, Desindustrialização, Países de alta renda, Países de renda médiaResumo
A partir da compreensão do desenvolvimento como processo de acumulação e investimento associado ao progresso tecnológico e à transformação estrutural, este artigo analisa a contribuição da indústria para o desenvolvimento dos países de alta renda (PAR) e de média renda (PMR) entre 2000 e 2019. Busca-se re-avaliar a validade da curva em U-invertido proposta seminalmente por Rowthorn, sob uma abordagem inovadora: considera-se a contribuição dos setores industriais, conforme intensidade tecnológica, medidos pela decomposição estrutural da produtividade. Os resultados indicam que, em nenhum dos exercícios empíricos realizados, observou-se a incidência da curva em U-invertido relacionada ao crescimento da produtividade ao nível de renda per capita, seja nos PAR ou nos PMR. Os padrões mais recorrentes foram: (i) uma relação exponencial positiva; (ii) uma curva similar a um U tradicional. Portanto, identificou-se que a capacidade de contribuição da indústria ao desenvolvimento não declinou conforme o aumento dos níveis de renda per capita.
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